Now that it’s clear that Sam Darnold will be the Minnesota Vikings’ starting quarterback this season, with J.J. McCarthy spending the season on injured reserve, what to expect from Darnold becomes the focal point.
Sam Darnold was the #3 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft but was never successful with the Jets and was later traded to Carolina, where he played for two seasons before spending last year with the 49ers as a backup. The Vikings acquired him as a bridge quarterback to J.J. McCarthy, but with McCarthy now on IR, Darnold will be the starter for the season if he’s able to keep that job.
Darnold’s career stats speak to the struggles he’s had on the field since being drafted:
- 56 career starts
- Career 78.3 passer rating
- Only 12 games with a passer rating over 100
- 15 games with a passer rating under 70.
- 56 interceptions, 39 fumbles (14 lost) (1.25 turnovers per game)
- 63 passing touchdowns, 13 rushing (1.36 TDs per game)
- 148 sacks (2.6 per game)
- 59.7% completion percentage; 72.5% adjusted completion percentage
- 6.7 average yards per passing attempt
Over his last 17 starts, Darnold has mirrored his career averages:
- a 59.8% (302/505) completion percentage
- 3,390 pass yards
- 16 TD – 16 INT
- 8 Rush TD – 6 Fumbles Lost
- 77.25 passer rating
Comparing Darnold’s career and last 17 start passer rating, completion percentage, and adjusted completion percentage to starting quarterbacks last season, Darnold would rank among the worst three quarterbacks in all of those stats. His career yards per passing attempt would’ve also been in the bottom third of starting quarterbacks.
He also had nearly 600 fewer passing yards over his last 17 starts than the quarterback with the lowest total last season who also started 17 games. And his average of basically one interception per game- also his career average- he would’ve been among the bottom three starting quarterbacks in that category as well.
Darnold is also comparable stat-wise with former Vikings’ quarterback Christian Ponder, who also had a 59.8% career completion percentage, 36 interceptions in 36 starts, and a 75.9 career passer rating.
So, summing up Darnold’s career-to-date, he’s been one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league since being drafted.
Comparing Darnold’s last full-season worth of starts with the Vikings last season, the Vikings had 1,000 more net passing yards last season (4,700 gross) and nearly twice as many passing touchdowns (30). The team’s completion percentage was 67.2% and every quarterback who started last season had a higher completion percentage than Darnold over his last 17 starts. The team did have more quarterback turnovers- 19 interceptions and 7 lost fumbles. The team passer rating was 92.4. And that team went 7-10.
Two Schools of Thought
There are two schools of thought regarding Darnold’s career-to-date and therefore what to expect from him this season for the Vikings.
The first school of thought is that Darnold has never played for a good team, never had good coaching (except last year as a backup with the 49ers), and never really had a chance to develop and succeed. Now that he’s got good coaching and a good supporting cast, Darnold is in the best position to succeed in his career, and so his performance should improve accordingly.
The second school of thought is that while Darnold hasn’t been on a good team or had good coaching, he also has his own limitations that prevented him from being a top quarterback in the league, despite being a top three draft pick. So, while he may benefit some from a better supporting cast, it may not be a vast improvement overall.
So which is it? Let’s take a look at some relevant factors.
Durability
This is a tough subject to bring up with Darnold considering the Vikings have already been bitten pretty bad by the injury bug at quarterback, and one not often mentioned, but Sam Darnold has yet to play an entire season as a starter. In his most recent years as a starter in 2021-2022 at Carolina, he was on IR for a total of twelve games over those two seasons. And he missed at least three games in each of the three seasons he played with the Jets. Overall, he’s missed 22 games over five seasons as a starter, which averages to a little over four games per season.
The Vikings may have a better offensive line than previous stops for Darnold, but in 2022 Kirk Cousins took the most hits in the league, so keeping Darnold healthy has to be a concern for the Vikings’ coaching staff (and a reason to keep three QBs on the roster).
Accuracy
Delivering the ball accurately is the most important task for a quarterback. It’s also something they can do regardless of how good their receivers are. Whether or not a quarterback faces pressure on a throw has an impact, but even on passing plays with a clean pocket, Darnold’s adjusted completion percentage (on target throws removing drops and throw aways) has been among the worst among starting quarterbacks every year he has been a starter except 2019. His adjusted completion percentage in clean pockets has averaged in the low-to-mid 70% range except 2019. By comparison Kirk Cousins’ adjusted completion percentage in a clean pocket has averaged over 80% over his Vikings’ career.
In order for Darnold to be better this year, he has to improve his accuracy. That’s something not many quarterbacks have done after six years in the league. Usually, they’ve settled into a range at that point, like Darnold has done, that’s difficult to break. It can be done, and hopefully Kevin O’Connell and company have been working with Darnold on that, but it’s still an open question heading into the regular season.
Turnovers
Darnold has had a problem with turnovers dating back to his days at USC- both interceptions and fumbles. He’s averaged one interception per game since he became the starter at USC and that has persisted his entire pro career. He’s also fumbled 59 times in 80 starts, including his USC starts. He’s lost less than half of those, but nevertheless that’s over two fumbles every three games and probably one lost fumble every three games. That’s 1.3 turnovers per game for Darnold alone, which was just above the averrage team turnover rate per game last season. Assuming other players commit a half dozen or more turnovers for the Vikings this season, and Darnold kept his career rate of turnovers, the Vikings would be near the bottom of the league in turnovers this season- just as they were last season. It’s tough to win in the NFL when you lose the turnover battle.
Darnold simply has to turnover the ball less. Like half as much as he has in the past for the Vikings to be competitive.
Reducing interceptions is a function of accuracy, decision-making, and reading/seeing the coverage. Looking at Darnold’s interceptions from the 2021-2022 seasons, his last two as a starter, almost every one was either a bad decision or a bad throw or both. There weren’t any of the bad luck variety, based on a tipped ball or bounced off his receiver’s hands, etc. This is a quarterback in year four and five as a starter who is still struggling with what he can get away with as a passer in tight windows, with accuracy, with decision-making, and to a lesser extent reading coverage.
To cut down on interceptions, Darnold needs to speed up his processing and throw with more anticipation, improve his decision-making and recognition of coverage. He also needs to have a better understanding of what his arm is capable of, and what it isn’t. That’s a lot on his, Kevin O’Connell’s, and Josh McCown’s plate to correct over the course of the off-season and training camp.
However, reports are that Darnold has struggled with interceptions in practice, including the joint practices with Cleveland. His one preseason drive was turnover free, so that at least is something to build on.
Avoiding fumbles should be an easier fix. Coaching Darnold to keep the ball high and tight to his chest with two hands on the ball as he makes his progressions and taking care of the ball when on the run. Getting those habits to stick, especially in the heat of battle, can be a longer process.
Confidence
Sam Darnold’s first pass attempt as an NFL quarterback was a bad decision to throw way across the field after scrambling to the other side and resulted in a pick-six. His confidence as an NFL starting quarterback has been an issue ever since. It wasn’t the pick-six- although that didn’t help- it was the poor coaching and poor teams around him that put him in poor situations throughout his career.
His year as a backup in San Francisco may have served as a clear break from the past mentally, and a chance for a new beginning in as quarterback friendly a situation as he’s likely to ever get in the NFL. He has a former NFL quarterback as his head coach and his former teammate and mentor as quarterback coach. He has arguably the best receiver group in the league and one of the best tackle tandums in the league as well. And his defense should be good too.
All that should help build his confidence and help put him in better situations to succeed.
But Darnold should also recognize that this is his last chance to show he can succeed as an NFL starter. If he fails with the Vikings, in the best situation he’s likely to land, the league will conclude- rightly- that he’s a backup rather than starting caliber quarterback and he will be a backup the rest of his career.
His Future is Now
Darnold may be in the best situation of his career, but there is still plenty of pressure on him to deliver too. Starting week one. A few bad games and the calls to bench him will be deafening. The Giants game to begin the season on the road is almost a must-win and must play well game for him as the next four games against the 49ers, Texans, at Green Bay, and the Jets in London will be against much tougher defenses. The following week is a bye-week and if Darnold hasn’t shown he is capable of at least league-average performance by then I would not be surprised if the Vikings benched him. That may be a tough call for Kevin O’Connell to make, but the pressure on him to do so will be intense.
Hopefully it won’t come to that, and Darnold will be able to ball out and prove he can be a successful starting quarterback in the NFL. But he must show improvement over his past performance beginning week one.
If Darnold were to replicate his career average stats or those over his last 17 starts between week one and the Vikings’ bye week, he’ll probably be done as the Vikings would most likely be 1-4 at best at that point and at a juncture where they could most easily move to another quarterback.
A Big Coaching Test for Kevin O’Connell and Josh McCown
The Vikings are ultimately looking to J.J. McCarthy as their week one starter in 2025. A Sam Darnold that shocks the league and performs as a top ten quarterback is one that will be too expensive for the Vikings to retain next year. And a Sam Darnold that is mediocre or a continuation of the Sam Darnold of the past may not warrant even a backup job with the Vikings.
But this off-season and this season, coaching Sam Darnold will be an important test for Kevin O’Connell and Josh McCown. KOC was able to get more from Kirk Cousins in the two seasons they worked together. But Kirk was not the reclamation project Sam Darnold is.
Darnold has a lot more pieces to put together. Fundamentals to improve. Confidence to build. But he couldn’t hope for a better head coach and quarterback coach to do all that. KOC has helped improve both Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins and as a former NFL quarterback understands what Darnold is going through. Josh McCown was Darnold’s former teammate and mentor when he entered the league. He knows him well. If any quarterback coach knows best how to coach Darnold, it’s McCown.
But between McCown and KOC, there is a lot of heavy lifting to do from a coaching perspective. Darnold has his share of fundamental issues that need to be fixed in short order. A successful Sam Darnold this season will owe a great deal of the credit to KOC and McCown for coaching that improvement.
A realistic view is that Darnold is able to improve from near the bottom of the league to at least a league-average quarterback by virtue of better coaching and team around him. To rise beyond that, Darnold will need to do more to improve his own shortcomings as a quarterback when it comes to accuracy and turnovers, while showing he has the confidence and ability to perform in clutch situations. Lastly, he needs to show the durability to make it through the season- and perhaps even the post-season.
If Darnold is able to both take advantage of his improved surroundings, and improve his own shortcomings, the Vikings can compete for the division title and in the post-season. If he’s just able to improve based on a better roster around him, then it will be a middling season for the Vikings that will likely end short of the post-season. And if he isn’t able to improve at all, well, it’ll be a long season.
