PFF sees Colts’ potential but takes the under on win projection total

Pro Football Focus predicted whether each team would finish the upcoming season over or under their projected win totals. For the Colts, whose over/under is at 8.5 wins, PFF went with the under.

Although PFF may be a bit skeptical, they do see the tremendous upside this Colts team possesses, mentioning that a Year 2 leap from Anthony Richardson could give them a shot at making the AFC Championship Game.

“If he takes a Year 2 leap, the Colts will be in the AFC South title hunt and will potentially even have a shot at the AFC championship. However, if he falters, this team could come crumbling down and find itself drafting in the top five in 2025.”

Like every team, the Colts have their question marks, most notably in the secondary and in what to expect from Richardson, who has just 98 career dropbacks. It’s those unknowns for PFF, specifically around Richardson, that have them bearish about the Colts heading into the year.

While ultimately, Richardson’s performance will determine the Colts’ ceiling, on paper, there are a number of reasons to be optimistic about the 2024 season.

For one, the Colts are stout in the trenches, having built one of the best offensive and defensive lines in football. As the old saying goes, if you can control the line of scrimmage, you can control the game.

Richardson is also playing in the friendly Shane Steichen offense–wherever Steichen has gone, his quarterbacks have found success. Not to mention that the continuity of being in the same system can result in a big jump in that second season, not only for Richardson but the rest of the offense as well.

“When you have your system in place, it helps big time, especially with the players understanding the verbiage and terminology,” said Steichen. “But really trying to stay on the cutting edge of things because this league is always changing. So if we can do that and build on what we did last year, I’ll be excited for the 2024 season.”

Around Richardson are talented skill position players in Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and Adonai Mitchell, to take some of that playmaking burden off of his shoulders. For all the reasons mentioned, it’s not as if Richardson is going to have to do it all on his own. The Colts have the infrastructure to facilitate his success.

Now, with that said, while potential is great—and the Colts certainly have it—potential doesn’t mean a whole lot until it’s recognized. As just highlighted, there are real reasons that 2024 can be a success for Indianapolis, but at the end of the day, seeing is believing—and it’s up to the Colts to showcase that upside this season.