The rollout of the 2024-25 version of the Phoenix Suns is officially upon us. The preseason opener is just over two weeks away – and with that, we will have Suns basketball for the first time in nearly six months.
While the Suns are still expected to heavily factor into the Western Conference playoff picture, they likely will fail to be seen as a lock by the consensus, largely due to injury concerns and the perceived improvement from the conference as a whole.
Who will be the six teams that avoid the play-in tournament at this stage—with just over a month until regular season play commences?
We will explore below.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder are probably the only true “lock” for the top 6, barring any disastrous outcomes.
They were the 1 seed last season and did nothing but improve. Alex Caruso-Luguentz Dort-Jalen Williams is one of the most versatile and intimidating perimeter trios in the league on defense. Isaiah Hartenstein feels like too perfect of a fit next to Chet Holmgren. The Thunder also have one of the better benches in the conference.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will also look to build off of a near-MVP season – this Thunder team is simply phenomenal across the board, and should be seen as the biggest threat to unseat the Boston Celtics as league champion in 2025.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves remain one of the better squads in the conference, despite some believing that regression is inevitable.
The outcome of the season likely hinges on internal improvement, particularly of Jaden McDaniels and Anthony Edwards, as well as how rookie Rob Dillingham progresses throughout the season.
Otherwise, this should be a team that is made for another standout regular season, no matter what personal views of Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns are.
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks feel like a decent bet to regress – especially compared to the other squads listed here.
Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford feel like they each have pointed limitations that will prevent further growth. The wing rotation possibly took a hit with the departure of Derrick Jones Jr. Players they took a chance on – such as Quentin Grimes – are very much going to be hit-or-miss propositions.
Of course Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic will keep the floor relatively high record wise, but the success to the degree of last season feels unsustainable. They still should be a top-6 seed, though.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are the biggest wild card in the conference. They earned home-court advantage in the first round in both 2022 and 2023 before facing a litany of injuries that destroyed any chances of contention last season.
Although this offseason hasn’t been the kindest to them—particularly G.G. Jackson’s broken foot costing a significant portion of his sophomore season—they return a quality core lead by Ja Morant.
Jaren Jackson Jr. and Marcus Smart also happen to be 2 of the 3 most recent defensive player of the year winners, while Desmond Bane has turned into one of the better all-around 2-guards in the game.
Don’t sleep on Memphis this season.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets feel like another team primed to take a dip after losing a key player for the second consecutive offseason, as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope departed for the Orlando Magic.
Nikola Jokic remains the best player in the world – and he alone should be able to counteract the losses – which also included rookie F/C DaRon Holmes who suffered a torn achilles in his first Summer League contest.
Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr. round out a supporting cast that remains stout. Expect Denver to be in contention to get home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs yet again.
Phoenix Suns
For all the skepticism still surrounding the Suns, they had a quality offseason.
Mike Budenholzer’s consistent regular season output has been well-documented. The PG duo of Tyus Jones and Monte Morris should serve to shore up the fourth quarter woes from the previous season.
It is entirely reasonable that the new-look offense will fully take off in year two of the “big three” experiment as well, and high-upside players like Bol Bol could take off.
It would be entirely shocking if Phoenix isn’t able to expand on the 49-win result from last season.
In the end, it will be virtually the same crowd as last season that sneaks into the top-6 with one exception.
Don’t be shocked if an under-the-radar team such as the Sacramento Kings makes a run for one of these spots over the course of the season despite being generally less talented compared to the competition listed above.
This could end up being the most interesting playoff race in the West in some time – virtually every squad in the conference is poised to be competitive outside of the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers.
