For the past three years, Jayson Tatum has been one of the five best players in the NBA. He’s been named to three straight All-NBA First Teams, and this past year, he led the Boston Celtics organization to its first NBA Championship since 2008. The perennial MVP candidate has sniffed the award before, but the only way he could win it would be completely illogical.
Nikola Jokic has won the MVP award in three of the past four seasons, with Joel Embiid snagging the other. Before them, there was Giannis Antetokounmpo, before him, there was James Harden, and before him, there was Russell Westbrook.
In order for Tatum to leap into that top-tier, number-one position, he would have to actively hurt Celtics basketball.
Jayson Tatum can only win MVP by hurting the Celtics’ team-oriented style of basketball, and that won’t happen
As things stand, guys like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic are among the favorites to win MVP next year. Jokic is up there as well. But the Dallas Mavericks, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Denver Nuggets play a very different style of basketball than the Celtics.
All three teams play heliocentric basketball. Obviously, Doncic, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jokic are phenomenal passers, but that’s why the style works. They are hogging the ball only to make the best-possible plays for others.
Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Denver want the ball in Doncic, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jokic’s hands as much as possible. That’s how they win basketball games. That’s how those front offices built their teams. They have solid supporting casts, too, but their top guys run the show.
That’s not how the Celtics win.
During their 2024 title run, Tatum led the Celtics in points, rebounds, and assists. He was the offensive focal point. But Boston doesn’t play heliocentric basketball. They play more of a team game.
Their entire starting lineup (when Kristaps Porzingis is healthy) is comprised of All-Star-caliber players, all of whom are capable of creating for themselves and others. Boston is at its best when the ball is popping around, and everyone gets their chance to make a play happen.
If Tatum wanted to win the MVP award, he would have to compete with Doncic, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jokic statistically. That means he would have to take touches away from Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, and Porzingis.
That’s not the winning formula for the Celtics.
Brad Stevens has built such an incredible roster that Tatum’s stats simply won’t be good enough for him to win the MVP award (barring the Celtics having an even more historical season than they did last year).
The only way Tatum will reach that peak next season is if he takes away from the team. And that’s not going to happen.
